Ne-Messi

   This time Alex Ferguson is not taking it lightly. There will be no complacency. No certainty. The talk of entering the final as underdogs will not be the product of typical footballing false modesty. History suggests he and his team need to beware.

   In 2009 Manchester United were torn apart by Barcelona in the Champions League final, lucky to lose 2-0, their defence, like the rest of us, standing back in admiration to watch Lionel Messi and Samuel Eto'o score. His side carved open time and again, creating little in response, afterwards the United manager could do no more than articulate what everyone saw to be true: "Barcelona," he said, "were by far the better team."

   Already this season Ferguson has fulfilled one ambition. He has knocked Liverpool off their perch (though, typically, he claims against all recorded evidence, never to have put it like that). He has set a record of domestic championships. Now he has another target in sight: he wants to join Liverpool's Bob Paisley as the manager of an English club to have won the most European Cups.

   And in Rome two years ago, he came nowhere near improving his continental tally. After destroying Arsenal in the semi final with their lightning breakaway football, Ferguson thought a similar tactic would work against Barca. To be fair, he was not alone in that thought. Before the match most commentators believed a midfield of Park, Anderson and Carrick could sufficiently disrupt and discomfort the Catalans for Tevez, Ronaldo and Rooney to hit them on the break. But on the day, Carrick disappeared, Park was by-passed, Anderson anonymous and worst of all, Ronaldo, the supposed matchwinner, reverted to show pony type, sulking and moaning his way through 90 minutes of embarrassment. Though he had a point afterwards when he complained, even as he prepared his exit route to Spain, that United did not have a sufficiently coherent tactical plan to deal with Barca.

   Ferguson has now reached a conclusion. Attacking-wise it will again rely on breakaway pace, with the jet-heeled Javier Hernandez central. But with Rooney pushing back when the opposition have the ball, to join Giggs, Carrick and Park in central midfield, the hope is they will not be swamped as they were in the Olympic stadium.

   Then, if they fall behind, Ferguson is said to have a plan B involving removing Park or Carrick, bringing on Chris Smalling, reverting to three at the back, moving his full-backs into wide midfield and pushing Antonio Valencia into attack to join Rooney and Hernandez. As reward for all his efforts at mimicry, Nani will remain on the bench.

   Of course, you can plan as much as you like and still come unstuck against Barcelona. Jose Mourinho, the master of preparation, was undone 5-0 at the Camp Nou despite spending weeks pondering how his new Madrid team might emulate his old Inter and out-defend them. The best way to beat them - as United showed in the semi final in 2008 - is to play out of your skin and get lucky, an approach, frankly, not recommended in coaching manuals often enough.

   All sensible prognosis suggests Barca will do it at Wembley, the albeit completely rebuilt place where they won their first European Cup. The finest club team assembled in a generation surely has the wherewithal to win its second title in three years, even against the club that has the best claim to match it as the world's most renowned.

   Except for this thought. Ferguson likes his football history, so he might take heed of this statistic: in 10 previous finals involving a club from the host nation, seven have been won by the home team. An eighth is not too ridiculous a possibility.